2 – 4 – 8

Today we have a test. A math test. The math is easy. The thinking behind it much harder.

A few days ago I was discussing prospective Israeli clients and global strategy projects for the upcoming Global Consulting Practicum year with Yuval Dovev, Head of Strategy and Business Development at IDC Herzliya University.  GCP is a program based at The Wharton School of The University of Pennsylvania where I spend some time overseeing the Africa and Middle East projects and partners.

As we drove between appointments, our discussion moved to the seemingly intractable issues facing Israel and the Arab countries. Suddenly Yuval asked me a math question. “Here are three numbers. 2, 4, 8. Give me another 3 numbers that follow the same rule. Then tell me other sets of 3 numbers that follow the rule until you are sure of the rule and then tell me the rule.”

Take this test. Write down sets of 3 numbers until you know the rule and then write down the rule.

To make it harder for you to skip ahead to the answer,

here is a picture of the Mediterranean Sea I took from a Tel Aviv beach .

Think you have the answer now? I felt sure I did. I thought for a minute and then responded “3, 6, 12.” Yuval asked if I needed to think of another set of numbers or if I knew the rule. I confidently replied “Each number is double the previous number.”

By Yuval’s laugh I knew I was wrong. “Each number is bigger than the one before it”, he finally shared. “Everyone misses the simple and goes for the complex. And once they have what they think is the answer they stop looking to see if there are other possibilities.”

“As soon as confirmation bias steps in, people only find 3 number sets that meet their bias. You were so sure of the rule you lost sight of the fact that perhaps it was only one rule of many that fit the situation. And maybe one of the other rules would lead to a better result.”

In my case, this biased thinking had no consequences beyond a bruised ego. But in the case of organizations trying to find the best solutions to difficult issues, be they companies or countries, the results can be devastating. Look deep, search widely, and remember the simplest solution is often the best one.

As we drove along the border between Israel and the Occupied Territories, I thought about the many seemingly intractable issues and conflicts faced by both companies and countries.

Intractable issues? Or intractable thinking?