For some reason we are always fighting the last war. It’s as though our eyes were in the back of our heads. It reminds me of how on many commuter trains there are always seats facing backwards…and people gazing at where they’ve been rather than watching where they’re going.
Many managers and executives don’t seem to realize that the past is gone and they need to prepare for what the future will bring…and it probably won’t be what has already happened. I was reminded of this while reading an article in the Economist called “Fingers Crossed…earthquake fears on the west coast”.
It was a fascinating article about how politicians in Seattle are bickering over demolishing a quake damaged viaduct. It seems that it was damaged in the magnitude 6.8 earthquake of 2001 but has been repaired a bit and is open for travel.
The important factor is that as they watch the fault pressure build up, sometime in the next 50 years scientists are predicting an earthquake of magnitude 9.0 coupled with a tsunami…where the viaduct sits.
The mayor of Seattle wants to close the Alaskan Way Viaduct next year. Those more worried about economic issues than squashed motorists say the risk is no greater than before Japan’s disaster. True I suppose, but then we’re all living through the result of that probably won’t happen situation.
My crystal ball is in for repairs so I have no idea at all when the earthquake and tsunami will strike Seattle. What fascinates me is how many people will do anything to keep others from addressing real risks the future holds.
And why do I share this story here, in my musings on how to become a better leader? It seems to me that leaders have to be able to look out into the future and prepare people for uncomfortable things…and motivate people to be willing to do something about such things. I mentioned this a bit in my last post also.
But what I see is many with the megaphone working to maintain the status quo (clearly forgetting what all top executives know…you move forward or die, there is no steady state), or using their rear view mirrors in an attempt to return to a past that really didn’t exist.
What I find the oddest thing about this is that this inability to conceptualize the future based on knowledge, expertise, and, yes, science, seems to have taken hold so strongly in the United States while China is forging ahead to create a future where they are the engine driving the world.
Where are our visionary leaders hiding? How is it that we have become in thrall to the willfully ignorant fearful of what is to come? What has happened to those willing to put their neck on the line to guide us forward?
And which are you? Someone blowing in the wind of those screaming the loudest or someone with a strong core and the will to stand up and lead us forward through the gale?
By the way, the Alaskan Way Viaduct, a double decked elevated highway, carries about 110,000 vehicles a day. I wonder how many will be on it when the earthquake and tsunami hit.