Last War’s Weapons

A few months ago, I discovered The Archdruid Report and have been reading it with great interest ever since. Its subtitle is “druid perspectives on nature, culture, and the future of industrial civilization.” It’s not something many business leaders would normally find, and even if they found it, they would probably pass it by as soon as they read the name. Imagine business leaders you know sharing how they’re channeling The Archdruid for their best business ideas.

On the contrary, however, it’s an example of exactly the kind of mind expanding discourse on the current state of the rapidly changing business environment and the world in general that business leaders need. Something that can lead to inspiration and good ideas, and keep you from becoming fixed in your beliefs about how to run your business in the most effective and successful way. Something that keeps you paying attention to the impact of events beyond your control and thinking about how to take advantage of these events for greater success

In the second of the current three part series called The Cimmerian Hypothesis (start with Part One: Civilization and Barbarism) there was a discussion about the great chronicler of the rise and fall of civilizations, Arnold Toynbee. The Archdruid nicely reduces volumes of Toynbee’s work to these few words. “… (he) wrote at length about the way the elite classes of falling civilizations lose the capacity to come up with new responses for new situations, or even learn from their mistakes; thus they keep on trying to use the same failed policies over and over again until the whole system crashes into ruin.”

If Toynbee were sharing his wisdom today, he might offer this idea, “get your nose out of your phone so your eyes can take in all going on around you. When new situations appear, new thinking is required if you want to prosper. “

Your alternative to opening your mind is becoming caught in group think, confirmation bias, and before too long, losing your ability to come up with new responses to old issues and new situations. While this may not lead to the end of civilization, it does lead to missing changes going on around you. It leads you to keep fighting with the last war’s weapons while your competition is using tools designed with the next war in mind.

The fall of civilizations and the fall of companies come about for the same reason: leaders who suffer from an inability to change as conditions evolve. Leaders whose thinking ossifies and develops an impenetrable shield against new ideas. Leaders stuck in their beliefs and ignoring all evidence they’re wrong.

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